Diving into One of the Most Crowded MVP Races We Might Ever See

The MVP race is always an exciting league-wide discussion and a critical factor when the time comes to compare legacies, but rarely is a race close enough where it remains a serious debate all the way up to when the award is announced in May. And for that race to include more than two candidates all the way through, well, it's almost unheard of. But the stars are shining here in 2024, and as we close in on the 1/3 mark of this NBA regular season, it's shaping up to be one of the most exciting MVP races this league has seen in some time. As it currently stands, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jayson Tatum all feel like they've got a legitimate shot, and that doesn't even include preseason favorite Luka Doncic, who missed a bit of time earlier but feels a big couple weeks away from launching himself right back into the race. In the 2020s alone, which has been largely dominated by Jokic and Embiid, the 2022-23 race is the only one I really view as having much serous debate at the top, even while the year prior was closer by the numbers. Embiid and Jokic battled all the way to the end, their late-season showdown became must-see TV, and both sides felt like they had a legitimate case before Embiid ultimately came out on top. Jokic, without too serious of a threat, has won the other three this decade, and he's been so good that the runner-ups, Embiid twice and SGA last season, felt more like they were playing for second than anything else.

The overall fascination with Jokic has seemed to partially evade him from the recency bias that has worked against some all-time greats in the past, and this season may be his best act yet as a Nuggets team with a weakened bench and the loss of KCP continues to win games as the Joker has taken his dominance to new heights. He might very well average a triple-double, is shooting 48.9% from three, and when need be, can go and give your favorite team 50 with ease if that's what Denver needs. The concern with his case might be where Denver will finish in the standings, but Jokic took the crown in 2022 with a Nuggets team that finished as the West's No. 6 seed. Denver probably isn't finishing any worse than that, and this is a better, more dominant version of Jokic than what we saw back then. Any second-half regressions seems just about impossible for the Joker, so he's at the top of the crowded field as it stands, but there's a ways to go with plenty of superstars gunning for positioning.

Like Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo has also been a staple of these races for a good number of years now - he won back-to-back in 2018-19 and 2019-20 - though there's a legitimate argument to be made that this is the best Giannis that we have seen yet. The Greek Freak has finished in the top-5 in MVP voting for six straight seasons, though not in the top-2 since he last won it in 2019-20, but if you told me right now he's the NBA MVP, that'd be a tough one to argue. He's guided Milwaukee back into the playoff picture after their disastrous start, seems to be building more of a rapport with co-star Damian Lillard, and is leading the charge for a defense that continues to improve as the Bucks fight to return to their position as one of the East's legitimate contenders. Poor injury luck in recent postseasons has led fans to in a way forget just how incredible Giannis is, though no one forgets that iconic championship run back in 2021, but there's just nobody in this league matching Antetokounmpo's stretch and athleticism and his ability to simply take over a game no matter what surrounds him. this is the most dominant he's ever looked. His 32.7 PPG lead the league and mark a career-high, and he's shooting 61.2% from the field in an accurate representation of just how unstoppable he becomes charging at the rim and running the open floor. Like Jokic, a leap in the standings would do wonders for Giannis' MVP hopes, and the Bucks are headed the right direction winning 12 of their last 15 and now set to play for the NBA Cup Final. If Giannis keeps this pace up and puts together his best regular season to date, it'll be tough to deny a 3rd MVP trophy to his name.

Any time a team wins like the Celtics and Thunder have been, chances are you can take the best player from that team and toss him into the thick of the MVP race. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum are no exceptions. Tatum has been a tier below the true MVP candidates for a number of years, but now established as a champion with the Celtics rolling to another dominant regular season, it might finally be time for him to make the big leap. We talk all about how well-rounded Boston is with all the weapons they can throw at you, yet Tatum leads this team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. He's also a terrific defender. We saw last NBA Finals that even while struggling with his shot, Tatum will make his presence felt in just about every other way, and as he re-discovers his three-point shot and is back to scoring in bunches, there's nothing he can't do at this point. And the Celtics are really, really good. Tatum's fantastic numbers don't nearly get the attention of the Jokic and Giannis' of the world, but on the best team in basketball often praised for its balance, Tatum leads the Celtics in everything. He's the clear cut No. 3 in this race and if Jokic and Giannis can't find a way to keep up this ridiculous pace, Tatum is next up in what could be his best shot yet at winning an MVP. Out west we've got another star leading the charge of an unstoppable force, with SGA still giving you his usual 30 a game with his playmaking continuing to improve, all while he's shooting 51% from the field with OKC headed for a second straight No. 1 seed. In a similar situation, Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in MVP voting a season ago, and there was a handful of people that thought it should be him. With that being the case, even as my current No. 4 in the race, you simply can't ignore SGA, especially with the Thunder on their way to what should be at the least a 60-win season. They'll play for the NBA Cup Final tonight against Giannis and the Bucks, and a big night from SGA could go a long way in moving the needle on the national stage.

The way things are trending, this race looks as crowded as it's been in any season in recent memory. Jokic and Giannis put up video game numbers nightly, while Tatum and SGA can do that and will have a 1-seed to back it up. But does the list stop there? Luka was the favorite coming into the year and while the numbers aren't nearly as jaw-dropping as we've seen in the past, there's more than enough time for that to change. Doncic missed a few games and is only averaging 28.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 8.2 APG, incredibly a down year stats-wise for a guy with better career splits than LeBron. We've seen Luka drop 70 and we've seen him average nearly a 34-point triple-double, so a bump in numbers could certainly be in the cards, and he's coming off his best performance of the season with 45, 13, and 11 in a win at Golden State. The Mavs should win enough games to keep Doncic relevant in the race if the number permit, and he's got all the time he needs to claw back in the race and give the top dogs a run for their money. And as far as who has the highest ceiling in the hunt to catch Jokic and Giannis, I'd take Luka over Tatum and SGA.

Last year's All-NBA First Team is showing out again this season, and they're in a league of their own in the MVP race so far with all five poised to form their own unique case. It's not often a race features multiple candidates, let alone more than a couple, but this is shaping up to be a particularly exciting race that should be one of the great stories throughout this regular season.