NBA What If's Volume One - What if the Thunder Never Traded James Harden?

What separates sports from the rest of its peers in the entertainment industry is its unpredictability, the idea that nobody truly knows how a game, a season, or even any single play is really going to go. If all else fails, this is a component that sports will never lose, and it's why the fans will never grow tired of the always-changing, incalculable product. Predicting what will happen in the world of sports is no better than a guessing game - the sports gambling industry has made a living off of it - but how about taking a step back even further and predicting what would've happened if certain things went another way. Any number of factors can contribute to meteoric changes in the world of sports, some we can see how big they'll be right away and others that take years for us to fully grasp just how much it mattered. It creates a whole new category of sports we can dive into - the world of the what if's. Here, we'll dive into the five biggest what if's in the NBA this century, and everything that could've been different if a given event in the past ended up going a different way.

This one is the poster child for NBA what if's this century, the age-old question on ho things would've played out if the Thunder didn't trade James Harden to Houston in 2012 and signed him to another deal to keep him long-term. Flashback to 2012 - the Thunder had hit the jackpot in three drafts in a row landing Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden in back-to-back-to-back years, setting them up with one of the most exciting young cores the league had ever seen. The three of them were 23, 23, and 22, respectively, and the trio had already led the Thunder to an NBA Finals appearance with countless more seemingly in store. KD and Westbrook were the clear duo leading the way with Harden their third-best option coming off the bench, the Sixth Man of the Year and huge part of their success but in the eyes of Sam Presti, not indispensable. Harden was on a fast track to stardom very early in his career, but the Thunder didn't view retaining the 22-year-old budding star worth paying the luxury tax, and Harden and Oklahoma City ultimately never agreed on a contract extension. They traded him alway to a welcoming suitor in Houston for pennies on the dollar, landing Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, a pair of 1st-round picks, and one 2nd-rounder in exchange for Harden and three other role players. Martin, who was seven whole years older than Harden at the time, lasted just one season in Oklahoma City before being traded away, while Harden grew almost immediately into one of the best players in the game and an eventual MVP. Front offices spend decades trying to build the right formula to break through into an NBA Finals, and the Thunder walked right into one in to the tune of three straight generational hits in the draft. But they got greedy, not only unwilling to go $5M over the luxury tax to keep Harden but thinking it didn't matter, that they were positioned well enough to compete just as well without their third star.

And fast forward a few years, the Thunder never got back. In OKC's breakthrough 2011-12 they took down the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals, but San Antonio leaped back over them the next year, made it one more time, and it was the Warriors' window from that point on. In fact, it was Harden's Rockets that gave Golden State the toughest tests in the West throughout their run of success, while Durant left Oklahoma City four years after Haden and won a pair of championships with the Warriors. Now let's say Harden doesn't leave, and the Thunder budge on a long-term extension. That duo is locked in for at least four more years, where KD and Westbrook both keep on their trajectory while Harden inevitably becomes one of the game's top players, even if his numbers don't entirely reflect it. In Harden's brief time in Brooklyn alongside Durant and Kyrie Irving, he fit seamlessly dictating the offense and picking his spots when need be, not needing the ball in his hands at all time but remaining as impactful as ever. But Westbrook isn't as suited for an off-ball role as Irving, so things would get messy as Harden developed into a more expanded role. After all, he wasn't going to come off the bench forever, and peak versions of Westbrook and Harden are two of the most ball-dominant players ever, and something would've had to give.

I think it plays out this way - the Thunder beat the Spurs in the WCF again next year, keeping the same core in the same role as better versions of themselves with their burst and athleticism far too much for an aging San Antonio core to handle. They earn a Finals rematch with the Heat but go down again, this time in a far closer series, with LeBron still too much to handle, Wade still an excellent clutch performer, and the coming in similarly handy as their actual 2012-13 series with San Antonio. The next season ends up being OKC's year, with Harden officially stepping in as their third superstar, a year that doesn't go completely smoothly with the three stars clashing at times with only one basketball to work with, but the talent is too much against a West that couldn't keep up and a Heat team that simply looked too overmatched with an ailing Wade, aging role players, and LeBron simply not able to keep up. OKC gets their ring, but trouble in paradise arises not long after, with both Westbrook and Harden dissatisfied having to sacrifice more than they believe they should, and each regular season loss sparking another set of headlines. These are three MVPs we're talking about, two of which historically ball-dominant, all forced to share the ball just about evenly among three separate players. It becomes clear to the public that this trio has ran its course, as neither Harden nor Durant sign extensions when eligible and the Thunder don't return to the Finals before the contracts expire in 2016. The franchise had a decision to make, and it was a matter of Westbrook or Harden to pledge their loyalty, viewing Durant's satisfaction as the main priority in the saga. The Thunder, tipped by Durant, choose Westbrook, trading Harden away for a haul in the middle of the final year of his contract. The haul was nice, but known draft pick connoisseur Sam Presti could only land a return centered on draft compensation and some solid assets but not quite a replacement third star, with Harden's value lessening a bit heading into a contract year. Even with a nice return from whoever takes on Harden, the Thunder run into the same types of issues they did in reality with just KD and Russ as the superstars - it just came a little later with Durant re-signing in 2016 instead of leaving for Golden State. They can still never get over the hump with that duo, and while Westbrook signs the same extension he did in real life back in 2016, the pairing stalls until Durant eventually leaves in 2020 at the end of his new four-year contract. In short, the Thunder get a ring with the trio, able to capitalize on one year, 2013-14, where the three stars could coexist without growing too big for their collective good. The entire narratives still shift around all three of these stars. No one puts an asterisk next to KD's ability to win and instead of going down as terrific individual players that can't quite translate to winning, Harden and Westbrook are certified greats. Since Durant ended up getting two anyway, his all-time ranking doesn't change much. In this alternate universe Harden doesn't leave OKC until 2016, but that's right around where his utter dominance began to really take shape, so he has that same unbelievable run with a ring to his name. He's a top-20 player when you look at it like that. Westbrook's a little different, as the ring does wonders for how he's remembered, but he never quite has that post-KD statistical eruption he puts together from 2016-19, though I think his legacy plays out more favorably in this world. In some way, all it does is delay the inevitable of Durant and Westbrook falling short of Golden State when put to the test on their own, but any sequence that ends in a championship has to be considered a success, so history treats the Thunder a lot better if they bit the bullet and held onto James Harden in 2012.