NBA What If's Volume Three - What if Draymond Green Wasn't Suspended in the 2016 Finals?

As time winded down in Golden State's Game 4 win on the road against the Cavaliers, there didn't seem to be much in the way of the Warriors' second consecutive title. They had gotten the best of LeBron James and Cleveland the year before, followed that up with the best regular season of all time, and how just looked like the better team on their way to a 3-1 series lead with two of the final three back at Oracle. It was going to take a little something extra for this series to shift. With under three minutes to go and Golden State in control with a 96-86 lead, Draymond Green attempted to set a screen for Stephen Curry, and got tangled up with LeBron James before hitting the floor after a little extra bump by James. With Green on the ground LeBron then tried to step right over him, which Green greeted with a swing to the midsection. By this point, Green was a well-known offender. The whole Steven Adams kicking saga from the series prior was still fresh in everyone's mind, and Green had led the league in technical fouls in the regular season and was either one flagrant foul or two technicals away from a one-game suspension. While they didn't call it a flagrant at the time, the league had a decision to make after the game how they would deal with Green, a choice that would be met with disagreement either way especially after he wasn't suspended for the groin kick on Adams. Ultimately the league put the hammer down, ruling it a flagrant and suspending Draymond Green. The way the series had been playing out, Golden State probably would've won it in five. They were simply the better team, already having Cleveland's number from a year ago and dominated the first two home games and picked up the first road win of the series in Game 4. It was going to take some sort of exterior interference for the way things on the court were taking place to start moving a different direction and boom, there goes the heart and soul of this historically good team. Green was an elite NBA player at this time, making All-NBA 2nd Team this very season, finishing second in DPOY voting and 7th in the MVP race. He did it all for this Warriors team, and added a certain intensity that can't be measured by numbers and is simply impossible to replicate. With that intensity comes the occasionally hiccup, and in this case one too many as that last flagrant foul costed him a game. And we know what happened next. LeBron and Kyrie delivered legacy games in Game 5, scoring 41 points each on a combined 33/54 from the field, with the 112 points they scored the only time they scored over 100 points at Oracle Arena in either the 2015 or 2016 NBA Finals. Does this happen with Green in there? Not one time did the Cavaliers play well offensively at Oracle with Draymond Green playing, let alone the explosion they put together in Game 5. The Warriors were reigning champions with an 88-15 record that season entering that Game 5. They won it all in Cleveland a year ago, and would've had all the motivation in the world to end it in five in front of their home crowd. And not to mention all the momentum going their way after the road win, and the sheer fact that here was no reason to think this wasn't the better team.

If Draymond Green plays, the Warriors close this out. So what if he does? Where do we go if the Warriors cruise to another championship, making it two in a row and back-to-back Finals losses for LeBron since going back to Cleveland? For starters, the Kevin Durant Warriors era never happens. There's no post-Game 7 parking lot calls to KD. That Game 7 never even happens. Not many considered the possibility of Durant going to the Warriors with the way things actually did play out, and there's really no world where he does if Golden State actually won in 2016. I still think KD leaves - looking back it really just seems like he was done with Russ and OKC - but this is a guy with a pretty brutal track record trying to force himself into winning situations that aren't as perfect as Golden State's was. How many spots could he have realistically stepped into where the team elevates past the Warriors or even LeBron's Cavs? Are there any that would've given him a better shot than the Thunder? The other teams he took meetings with were the Clippers, Spurs, Celtics, and Heat. San Antonio seems far too unrealistic, and I don't think he moves the needle with Boston or Miami. I'd say the Clippers are his best bet, but something always seems to go wrong with them, not to mention the salary cap hell it'd put them in and perhaps have to sacrifice a key player via sign-and-trade. And anyways, Durant said afterwards that if he didn't go to GSW, the Thunder were his second choice. And I think there's a better shot than not that without joining Golden State, Kevin Durant goes down as the best player in NBA history to never win a ring.

And how about Golden State? Curry gets his first Finals MVP six years earlier, and they've now taken down King James in back-to-back Finals. The league will close in at some point - Oklahoma City started to and the Rockets would a few years later - but the Warriors would still have that max slot to use and plenty of potential suitors like free agents Al Horford or Bradley Beal or the freedom to wait one more year if they felt good enough with their core. After all, that roster made a really good case for the best team of all time. I think what they go with is enough to stave off the rest of the West for at least one more ring the remainder of the decade, giving them three in the 2010s like they ended with anyway. And if they do add one more star, four in that span isn't out of the picture either. How about for Cleveland? Golden State was the bar and the Cavaliers weren't there, which has historically meant impulse decisions for LeBron-led teams. I think Kevin Love is the casualty, but is the value at that point enough to add someone filing that gap? I don't think so, nor do I think there's a point guard they could've gotten that gives them a better shot than Kyrie. But LeBron can't leave again, right, at least not that early? If they don't get it in 2016, when does it happen for him in Cleveland? That team might not have even been better than Oklahoma City, and while Kyrie might not have that same urge to get out on his own a couple years later, it's not like that duo accomplishing less together is going to help that situation in the long run. I don't think LeBron's finish to his time in Cleveland is all that different, just that he never got that ring that really elevating his legacy to that untouchable tier. And without that title, LeBron goes into his free agency in 2018 with only those two won with Miami, rings people would have a field day critiquing if they were his only like they do with, guess who, Kevin Durant. There's a lot less protection on his supposed top-two legacy if it plays out this way, and a really decent chance LeBron and Cleveland leave on bad terms once and for all if he never gets it done. In all likelihood, without Draymond Green's swipe at LeBron, the NBA stays as we knew it a little longer without the Durant move changing the league as we knew it. LeBron probably never brings it home, KD is forced to pout through more years with Westbrook, and Golden State in 2015-16 goes down as the best team of all time. Green's swipe at LeBron had a ripple effect on the league still felt to this day, making for one of the most exciting what-if's of the modern NBA with the shockwaves it brought within days of its occurence.